Stock Market Crash: Current Rally Is a Trap, Says One Market Legend

The Rosenberg Research founder voiced concern over the postelection rally, with the major stock indexes notching fresh highs in the week after Trump secured his second term as president. The Sanders rallies come as the Democratic Party’s popularity continues to sag. One CNN poll conducted in early March found that the party’s popularity is at an all-time low of 29%, down from 33% in January, a dip driven primarily by frustrated Democrats. The Partnership for Public Service, a nonprofit whose mission is to improve the federal government, said DOGE has cost the federal government roughly $135bn. The organisation based that figure on $270bn in annual workforce compensation and then estimated that layoffs, buyouts, hiring freezes and other changes reduced productivity by 50 percent. In his speech celebrating 100 days in office, Trump claimed to have restored free speech, dubbed surveys as ‘fake’ and claimed fuel prices were down.

Mediated peace talks have failed, and it doesn’t look like they will be successful soon. Some officials from the Fed also have made comments recently saying it’s too early to consider a lmfx review cut to rates in March, which is when traders largely expect them to begin, according to data from CME Group. Encouraging signs that inflation is cooling globally also continue to pile up. In the United Kingdom, inflation in November unexpectedly slowed to 3.9% from October’s 4.6% rate, reaching its lowest level since 2021. Still, a pair of reports showed the U.S. economy may be in stronger overall shape than expected.

This price level has acted as a ceiling since December 2024, preventing Bitcoin from gaining further traction. The market is pricing in that the Federal Reserve will raise rates at least six times this year. However, there are several reasons to believe that this rally is nothing more than a bear trap. Some experts were encouraged by the market’s stoicism and positive response to unprecedented monetary-easing efforts from central banks.

• For the Fed in particular, the expectation is for its main interest rate to fall by at least 1.50 percentage points in 2024 from its current range of 5.25% to 5.50%, which is its highest level in more than two decades.
• “The market pendulum has swung from extreme pessimism less than two months ago to extreme optimism,” said Mark Hackett, chief of investment research at Nationwide.
• His view is informed by the four-part “phases of a bubble” economic model popularized by renowned academic Jean-Paul Rodrigue in 2008, around the time of the last financial crisis.
• Some experts were encouraged by the market’s stoicism and positive response to unprecedented monetary-easing efforts from central banks.
• While accumulation remains strong, the macro trend presents a mixed picture.
• Fear of missing out on profits is pushing Bitcoin holders to accumulate at a rapid pace.

Treasury yields have been tumbling since late October on such hopes, and they fell again following the U.K. “A worrying revival of the ‘zombie company’ phenomenon hasbegun. Out of 3000 companies in the Russell 3000, roughly 600 are now in the ranks of the ‘walking dead’ — that’s about 50% more than before the GFC unfolded,” Rosenberg said. The rally in the stock market fueled by Donald Trump’s election win looks increasingly disconnected from reality, according to economist David Rosenberg. The way Hussman sees it, the market’s latest rally off the lows will likely be a short-lived, transient period which serves as a harbinger for an even further plunge. Billionaire Elon Musk is trying to upend the federal government through his Department of Government Efficiency, working to end contracts, fire workers and dismantle and eliminate agencies and departments.

• This price level has acted as a ceiling since December 2024, preventing Bitcoin from gaining further traction.
• After falling 30-plus percent in a little over a month, the S&P 500 clawed it’s way back to just an 11% year-to-date drop.
• This is the idea that investors will start to move from overvalued and long-duration financial assets, such as mega-cap tech stocks, into undervalued areas of the market that have tangible use cases in today’s economy.
• According to a recent study by Allianz Life Insurance Company of North America, about 66% of Americans believe that a recession will likely happen in the next year.
• Such a move would pave the way for Bitcoin to reclaim $109,588 and potentially form a new all-time high.

Investment Outlook: Dollar, Stocks, and Gold Lead the Way

Five polls released in the run-up to Trump’s 100th day – from CBS News, CNN, The New York Times/Siena, ABC News/Washington Post and NPR/PBS/Marist – found Trump’s approval ratings between 42 percent and 45 percent. In a twist, Trump also used the day to find some common ground with Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat and persistent Trump critic who is considering running for president in 2028. Deborah Spencer, another rally attendee, said she doesn’t like how she has so far “lost money for retirement” as the markets have dropped because of Trump’s economic policies. But Trump, in characteristic fashion Tuesday, cast his first three months in office as a universal success. To celebrate the first 100 days of his second term in office, President Donald Trump went back to his greatest hits. Despite the all-time high standing at $109,588, the $106,265 mark is Bitcoin’s immediate hurdle.

With all of that under consideration, Rosenberg thinks the likelihood of a strong recovery is doubtful. “We had the mother of all reflexive rebounds coming of the October, 1929 crash. We had a 50%, six-month rebound.” Rosenberg said the trend is a worrying sign for credit markets, and many small-caps are already among the ranks of zombie firms.

Building Resilience in 2025: Investment Strategies for the New Year

This surge in buying activity has driven the exchange net position to its lowest level in four months. Bitcoin’s recent rally has captured investor attention as its price inches closer to $105,000. The leading cryptocurrency has gained momentum throughout the past month, fueled by strong institutional interest and renewed market optimism. This fits into the firm’s broader investment thesis surrounding the debasement of global fiat currencies because of years of ultra-low interest rates and high government debt issuance. Even some technology shares made a comeback after strong corporate earnings.

Fact-checking Trump’s claims at 100-day rally in Michigan

According to a recent study by Allianz Life Insurance Company of North America, about 66% of Americans believe that a recession will likely happen in the next year. With spending power already constrained, another economic downturn would be devastating for the stock market. “The market pendulum has swung from extreme pessimism less than two months ago to hitbtc exchange review extreme optimism,” said Mark Hackett, chief of investment research at Nationwide. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index slumped 1.5% for its worst loss since beginning a monster-sized rally shortly before Halloween. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 1.3%, from its record high, while the Nasdaq composite sank 1.5%. Don’t hesitate to tell us about a ticker we should know about, market news, or financial education.Check out our WIKI that has beginner & advanced topics on both investing & trading.

In September, he wrote about his expectation for a 42% correction in the S&P 500 to play out within a year as investors positioned for perfection in equities, while inflation shakepay review started to pick up. Follow along with us on Twitter for by-the-minute updates on the latest business and financial news throughout the day. Former Adobe executive Abhay Parasnis raised $65 million for Typeface, a startup intending to bring AI to the world of marketing and communications content.

This creates an environment of rising inflation, where precious metals can gain an edge. Since inception through to the end of last year, it’s returned 199% to investors despite the underperformance of precious metals relative to other commodities. “There can be much more tolerance for equity prices to go down,” Smith said “And the Fed can proceed with their hiking plan.” “I think the differences in inflation are much more real today, much higher,” Smith said.

Market dynamics—including the selling from LTHs and conflicting investor sentiment—make this level particularly difficult to breach. If Bitcoin LTHs continue to offload their holdings, it could undermine the bullish sentiment driven by fresh accumulation. While accumulation remains strong, the macro trend presents a mixed picture. The Liveliness indicator, a key on-chain metric, has seen a notable spike since the start of May. Currently sitting at a multi-week high, it suggests that long-term holders (LTHs) are beginning to liquidate.

Like many others, I’ve been watching this market rally for the past few weeks, and I’m just not sure what to think. Part of me believes this is a real rally, that doesn’t look to slow down anytime soon. But the other part of me doesn’t get why everything is up so much with what’s going on I’m the world/us economy. We are basically in a recession or on the verge of one, inflation is at nearly 9% even though it’s down a bit, and everything I see on business news or articles says that this is all temporary. We have seen a sudden and sharp rally in the stock market in the last few weeks. This has led many investors to believe that the market has finally bottomed out and is now ready to start a new bull market.

How falsehoods drove Trump’s immigration crackdown in his first 100 days

Immigration at the US southern border has dropped notably during the first few months of the Trump administration. According to UBS’ probability model, there is a 40% chance of a recession happening in the next 12 months. UBS foresees a consumer-led recession, with a slowdown in spending as has been the case for the better part of this year. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.75 in July to combat runaway inflation.

It has also sought to overhaul the federal government with the help of tech billionaire Elon Musk, the head of the Department of Government Efficiency, which has ushered in mass layoffs of government workers. Thousands attended the rally, but the overall size of the event paled in comparison with past campaign-era Trump rallies. Trump referred to “all the people outside,” even as the venue itself wasn’t at capacity. Fear of missing out on profits is pushing Bitcoin holders to accumulate at a rapid pace. As Bitcoin hovers near its record highs, long-term investors appear to be adding to their positions, betting on a fresh breakout. “The oil and gas longs that we own, for instance, have been underperforming this big move up that we’ve seen crude and natural gas,” Smith said.

Markets, Mentors & Mindsets: What Buffett’s Tax Bill, Tesla’s Chart, and a Trader’s Wisdom Reveal About Wealth Today

The crowd was a gallery of T-shirts and hats from the 2016 and 2020 Bernie campaigns, classic rock bands and unions representing healthcare, Hollywood and construction workers. Sanders hasn’t changed his talking points much since his campaigns for the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination in 2016 and 2020. But his classic refrains about the power of “the millionaires and the billionaires” and the wealth of the 1% have found new resonance with Democrats angered by the second Trump administration. The hours-long event featured Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and a long lineup of progressive elected officials, labor leaders and musicians, including Neil Young, Joan Baez and singer-songwriter Maggie Rogers. Trump appears to be referencing a 2021 proclamation in which Biden acknowledged the “significant sacrifices made by Native peoples to this country – and recognise their many ongoing contributions to our Nation”.

However, while some states have recognised Indigenous People’s Day either instead of or in addition to Columbus Day on the same day in October, there was no change in the federal holiday under Biden. Brian Pannebecker, a Trump supporter who the president asked to address the crowd, correctly identified Thanedar as the lawmaker proposing impeachment. In some cases, experts said, companies might publicly announce plans to curry favour with Trump, even if they had intended to make these investments all along. GasBuddy.com data from April 23 showed that no gas station out of roughly 150,000 nationally sold gasoline for $1.98 per gallon.

For the uninitiated, Hussman has repeatedly made headlines by predicting a stock-market decline exceeding 60% and forecasting a full decade of negative equity returns. And as the stock market has continued to grind mostly higher, he’s persisted with his calls, undeterred. Jumping back into the market at a time when it’s historically overvalued, internals are weak, and conditions are overbought could easily rout unprepared investors. For context, Hussman provided the following visualization of Rodrigue’s chart. He argues that the “return to normal” fake-out is currently transpiring in the stock market — and warns of the massive drop that has historically followed.